I'll start w/ an apology to the NL. I was planning to do this for both leagues, but have quickly realized it took long enough just for the AL, so there likely won't be any NL preview unless someone else wants to take the horns. I'll offer a second apology to anyone in the AL that thinks they deserve to be on this list of the top 4; I feel pretty good that these 4 teams will be top in the AL by the time the season ends, but please prove me wrong (just not at my expense).
So w/o further ado, there were 4 teams I thought were head & shoulders above the rest of the AL. Well at least Heads above, as there are still some pretty strong teams that will contend for the WC spots and division crowns and certainly there will be a trade or 2 that will turn teams from pumpkins into chariots by the time the playoffs roll around. Anyhoo, those 4 are largely the top 4 teams from last season, Trenton, Kansas City, Salem, and near playoff team Wichita that has made 2 huge offseason moves to put themselves up there amongst this group. However, rather than just spewing my worthless opinion (who needs my $0.02 anyways?), I thought I'd put some ratings analysis behind it, and see if I can properrly rank them. So here we go.
We'll start w/ the offense and the likely starting 9. I'm not going to worry myself w/ durability or health ratings. Injuries will happen, and players will need rest, but I want to look what each team's best lineup will be, which assuradly they'll throw out there once the "real" season begins.
Team: Con/Pwr/vsL/vsR/Eye/Brn/Spd Tot Pwr Tot OBP Tot Spd Tot Offense
A 70 65 71 70 74 61 66 3.5 3.51 1.3 8.31
B 80 40 66 67 62 74 77 3.15 3.52 1.5 8.17
C 78 64 59 65 76 58 75 3.43 3.54 1.3 8.27
D 64 58 62 73 65 55 63 3.21 3.26 1.2 7.67
A little commentary, using factors that went into power, obp, and the running game, I figured out an offensive production number for each rating, a relative worth and a total offensive output. Perhaps there are better ways to do it, but this was off the top of my head, using things that made sense in my mind, then went to see how it shaked out, which seemed to match what my gut told me before I started. Team C & Team A appear to be pretty close, though Team A has a little more power. Team B has about 10% less power than both A & C, but makes up for it w/a 15% advantage in the speed and base running catagory and in the end, ends up about 2% short of teams A & C. Team D falls short in all 3 catagories. I thought their offense would be a little more potent on paper, but they fall about 7-10% short of the top 3.
Pitching:
I'll start by looking at starters, and by starters, I mean your starters in the playoffs, and any GM/Coach w/ his salt is going to get his stud out there twice in a 5 game set, and 3 times in a 7 game set. So I took each team's top 3, doubled up on 1 & 2, since you can expect them twice, and came up w/ an average starter.
Team Stm/Cnt/vsL/vsR/Vel/GdB/P1/P2/P3/P4/P5
A 87 89 77 85 35 83 88 79 50 63 43
B 75 76 82 86 55 76 76 72 61 49 22
C 71 84 79 78 63 81 83 73 65 48 19
D 83 74 73 74 72 51 77 64 58 55 31
Overall, these 3 sets of starters looks pretty even. Team A won't strike many out, but doesn't expect a lot of long balls. Team D will mow thru your lineup, but expect some flyball homers. Team B has the best splits, while Team C kind of falls in the middle in every area. Team A has the best combo of control and stamina to get you deep into a ball game, they also have the best set of P1 & P2, w/ a solid kicker in the P5 department. As mentioned, Team B's splits are great, but their top 2 pitchers fall behind A & C w/o the control of either. Overall, I'd say the fall just a notch below A & C like they did in the offensive catagory, with Team D coming up clearly in 4th.
Back of the bullpen:
Middle relief is nice, but these guys starters are designed to carry you deep into games so you can turn it over to your setup men and closer. I took each teams top 3 bullpeners or starters turned playoff relievers to rank each set. I'm only looking at P1 & P2, as many relievers lack those last 3 pitches.
Team Stm/Cnt/vsL/vsR/Vel/GdB/P1/P2
A 38 88 79 77 84 66 81 83
B 51 86 81 71 88 80 73 72
C 21 90 68 65 78 74 86 82
D 45 77 80 71 73 65 84 75
Again its hard to seperate teams A, B & C. All 3 have similar control, A & B dominate in splits over C, while C has the top set of P1 & P2. Team B has the best groundball ratio, meaning you won't see many walk-off homers, but questionable pitches for the back of a bullpen. And once again, team D comes up short of the top 3. Overall, I'd say A & B are tied for the best back of the bullpen, with C coming up just a shade short, and D trailing along, clearly in 4th.
Pitching depth:
Injuries are going to happen, starters will need rest during the season, and nothing can derail a championship run than losing your top starter once the playoffs begin.
Team Stm/Cnt/vsL/vsR/Vel/GdB/P1/P2/P3/P4
A 59 85 81 71 79 48 74 63 43 43
B 82 73 71 74 53 78 72 77 51 26
C 61 84 50 58 77 82 80 73 41 21
D 58 71 66 72 63 79 87 67 44 44
First, Team B's depth, while looking strong at the moment, is highly influenced by only carring 9 pitchers at the moment, 5 solid starters, but short of middle relief. For the playoffs, this shouldn't be much of an issue, but it could cost them a few games mid-season when they're forced to turn to crappy long men. Aside from that, Teams A comes out on top w/ solid control and splits, a little lacking on the groundball/flyball ration, but a solid set of pitches. Next is D w/ a great set of pitches, but just acceptable control, but decent splits and a great gb/fb ratio. Team C comes in 3rd w/ great perhiphals, but terrible splits, a solid combination for middle relief, but perhaps a bit troublesome for the back of the rotation or injury relief. Final team B comes in last w/ the previously mentioned concerns. A couple of injuries could send this staff to a 10 game losing streak, hampered even more by a tight team payroll.
Now, I'll turn my attention to defense, which will be a little more subjective and based upon positions. I'll skip presenting the numbers and just go w/ my thoughts since its a lot tougher to make a defensive determination w/ so many different ratings mattering to different position.
Behind the plate:
Team A clearly comes out on top w/ the top pitch caller amongst projected playoff starters, not to mention the best overall defensive backup for the regular season and great depths in the minors should injuries occur. Team D comes in 2nd, well behind team A in defensive catching amongst projected playoff starters, but with a very solid pitch calling backup w/ an 'OK' arm. Team C comes in next with an ok defensive catcher behind the plate, and an above average backup. Team D comes in last, though not by much w/ a so-so defensive catcher and a great defensive backup w/ no bat. Probably the best bet to use their backup as a defensive replacement.
Up the middle (SS-2b-CF)
Team B comes out ahead in this catagory, especially at 2b and CF, however there will be some worries w/ their regular SS defense. Teams A & D, look to be pretty close and in a tie for 2nd w/ solid defense at all 3 spots, GG level at SS, with A having a better centerfielder, and D having the better defensive second baseman. Team C takes 4th w/ equally solid defense at SS, but a step or 2 behind A & D at CF & 2b.
At the corners (3b-RF-LF-1b)
OK, so defense doesn't matter so much at LF and a little less at 1b, but both can cost you a ball game or 2. Team A has the best defense at 3b and RF, with potential gold glovers in both spots, not to mention solid defenders in LF & 1b. As team B slides their 3b to SS, their going to be hurting in 3b defense, not to mention the outfield corners as they continue to slide. right now, I'd have to consider them the weakest at the corners, but could improve rapidly w/ a great defensive SS (which they have on the bench) and sacraficine some offense elsewhere. Team C is a little weak in 3b arm, but solid at the other spots, while team D takes 2nd in this catagory w/ solid play at third, and solid defense in the outfield.
Overall defense:
Unless team B fixes its projected SS situation, which will help 3b & RF, team A takes the cake in this catagory, followed by D, then team B, then team C. However, as noted, team B could jump to the top by sacraficing a little offense.
One final note, all teams' bench seem to be about even. each has a solid defensive replacement, a solid defensive catcher, a little speed, not much pop but all players that could fill in for an injury. No body that is screaming for playing time, but all that can give the occasional rest.
So to wrap it all up.
Team A takes top honors in offense, starting pitching, back of the bullpen, pitching depth, and overall defense.
Team B takes top honors for the back of the bullpen, a close 3rd in offense and starting pitching, a lot to worry about in pitching depth, and the worst defense of the 4, but the potential to be the best.
Team C takes top honors in offense, and starting pitching, 3rd in the back of the bullpen, 3rd in pitching depth and defense
Team D takes 2nd in defense and pitching depth, and 4th in offense, starting pitching and the back of the bullpen.
I thought team D would be more competitive when I started this, however, last year's regular season wins champ has a tough road ahead if it wants to keep that crown. Team D is Trenton
Team B comes in 3rd, though not by much. Defense could be an issue and depth could be a huge issue if there are multiple injuries. However its offense (particularly their speed) and starting pitching gives them a legit shot at the W-S crown. Team B is Kansas City
Team C comes in 2nd w/ great offense and great starting pitching. Their back of the bullpen and defense leave them a notch below top honors, but are probably the 2 easiest areas to fix thru the trade market before the playoffs get here. Team C is Wichita
Team A takes top honors or at least challenges for them across the board. Of course w/ the top payroll, anything less than having the top team on paper would be a sore eye on the GM, while anything less than reclaiming the W-S crown will be a blackeye on the city. Team A is Salem.
Good luck knocking me off my high horse fellas :)
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