Friday, November 5, 2010

The Geriatric Times?

There's little doubt that OscarBaumann & JesusFernandez are two of the top pitchers this world has seen, if not the two best aces for the first 10 seasons of Ripken, Jr. Like sands thru an hour glass, time is starting to pass these two by, however each is due a hefty salary over the next 4 - 5 seasons before either can think of heading off to their golden years.

At his peak, Baumann was blessed with pinpoint control, wicked heat, nasty splits, but only 1 ++ pitch and 3 average to above average pitches. This was certainly enough to headline any rotation, but perhaps the key to his success was his ability to constantly work on short rest, allowing more starts per season than your average ace. While offseason elbow surgery following season 7 robbed Oscar of a good chunk of his zip on his fastball and a little bit of stuff off each pitch, he still commanded top dollar in the free agent bonaza on season 9 where Witchita signed Oscar up for a 5 year, $130 mil deal, including a $10 mil bonus. Oscar's 94 make-up rating would indicate a guy that should retain his skill set as he ages well better than most, however Wichita has hired Dr Kevorkian's brother as their team trainer, taking their buget from 15 in season 8, down to 11 in season 9 (Oscar's first w/ the team) and now standing at 10 this season. Just this past offseason, Oscar saw further corrosion of his fastball, a small loss in some of his pitches, and most importantly, another decent drop in his stamina that threatens to turn him into a 6 inning pitcher before too long. With the further decrease in training, similar drops could be expect this offseason, but make no mistake, when Oscar's on the mound he's still amongst the leagues best. Oscar is still only 33, so he shouldn't hit a sharp drop off outside of another serious injury, but unless the training buget gets back to a more acceptable level, he may be forced into long relief by the last year of his deal.

Meanwhile, the 36 year old Jesus Fernandez was set on a more reasonable contract the 3 years prior, but rather than agree to his initial demands, Jesus decided to get greedy and claim his initial demands were no longer good enough and headed to free agency. More money for Jesus, bad for Salem's buget. Salem decided to take the plunge, fight off at least one other suited and signed Jesus up to a 5 year, back ended deal that will see him garnering $18.3 mil during his age age 39 & age 40 seasons. Even at his peak, Jesus never relied much on heat, ranking towards the bottom of the world in velocity, however he more than made up for it with pin point control, a nasty sinker a + slider, and 3 more average to above average splits. It seems that velocity and stamina are the first 2 skills to seriously erode as one ages, however Jesus's doesn't have much room to fall with his fastball, and his stamina remains near 90 in his age 36 season, though it dropped from 94 last offseason due in part to Salem's lowering of the training buget in season 10 (down to 10) Careful of the impact of such a low training buget w/ an aging team, team owner quickly put more resources in training, and expec to raise it even further, eventually up to 20 before Jesus' contract is up.

so the question becomes, in the last couple of years of their respective deals, how overpaid will these two aces be? Please vote in the poll to let us know.