Monday, August 31, 2009

Heros and Chumps, Round 3

Divisional Championship addition.



AL: Salem over Montreal (4-2)

Hero: Galahad Dale. The southpaw from Oklahoma was once again given the opportunity to close out another series, and just like the previous 2 seres, Galahad slamed the door shut. Dale threw 8 strong innings, allowing a pair of early 2 run homers thru 3 innings, before settling in to allow just 2 more hits thru the next 5 while the Salem offense went on attack. In his previous start, Galahad scattered 7 hits thru 9 shut out innings. For the playoffs, Dale is now 4-0 with a 1.8 era.

Chump: Austin Durbin: The late season acquisition provided quite a boost to an already strong staff, however when the bright lights of the postseason flipped on, Durbin quickly faded into the night. Austin allowed 13 runs, 8 earned in just 10.2 innings while lossing both games oppossing Dale in this series. Add in the 3.2 innings of 8 run pitching verse Tacoma in the previous round, and you've got a postseason that is best forgotten. Expect Durbin to bounce back next year and provide the solid numbers we've grown acustomed to.


NL: Syracuse over Boise (4-1)


Hero: Al Bonds/Andy Ennis. A sort of platoon situation based upon which side the opposing pitcher throws from, Al gets the job of facing lefties and playing 2b, while Andy gets the job of facing the righties and playing out in LF. After sitting the bench for most of their first series, Al set the pace for Syracuse at the top of their order going 7 for 17 at the plate with 1 homer, 4 rbi, 5 runs scored and 3 stolen bases in 4 starts for Syracuse, while Ennis' lone start in the series produced 2 hits in 3 at bats along with 2 runs on a triple and a solo home run. Not bad production from either side of the plate.


Chump: Boise's medical staff. It has become obvious to this scribe, that Boise's owner has no clue whom to hire for this often overlooked position. Despite throwing the 2nd highest portion of their payroll in all the league towards their medical staff, they hired more ducks than Docs. Multiple injuries to their second basemen almost derailed the Boise train in round 2, but the final straw came in game 5 of their divisional championship series. Bouyed to a 3-0 lead, and staff ace Olmedo Figerosa was holding Syracuse to just 2 runs thru 4.2 innings. However resident AFLAC duct wrongly diagnosed Olmedo's pregame gas pains due to an overabundance of Chinese foot, rather than making the quit reasonable and obvious observation that Olmedo was suffering a severe case of acute appendicites. Olmedo is due to make a full recovery next year, but sadly has spent his own signing bonus to ensure that Dr James Andrew is added to the staff next year. Look for Boise's medical buget to balloon to an all together impossible 25 millon from its current 18 millon this season.

Thursday, August 27, 2009

Heros and Chumps (Round 2)

Montreal over Tacoma (3-1)

Hero: Pat Politte. Pat went 2-0 in this series, got off to a bit of a rocky start, giving up 3 runs on 5 hits thru the first 3 innings of game #1. He then proceeded to throw 4 innings of 1 hit baseball w/ just 1 walk and 7 strike outs, followed by 7 innings of 1 hit, 1 walk shut out baseball with 5 stikeouts to close out the series in game #4. Overall, 14 innings, 3 runs, 6 hits, 3 walks 14 strikeouts.

Chump: Kit Purcell. There were other Tacoma hitters w/ worse performances at the plate than Purcell, but safe to say, none were counted on more than Tacoma relies on MVP canidate Kit Purcell. Kit managed just 2 hits in 15 trips to the plate along w/ 1 walk. While he managed to cross the plate 3 times in this series, he failed to drive in a single run.

Salem over Philly (3-0)


Hero: Hick Hartley. All star 3B Hick Harltey lead the Salem assualt on Philly in their 3 game sweep. While Salem had 3 solid pitching efforts in the sweep, the outcome was never in doubt due to Salem's 26 run outburst over the 3 game set. Hick set the pace going 6 for 11 overall, including 3 home runs, 5 runs and 5 rbi in the first 2 games of the series.


Chump: Philly starting pitching. An otherwise solid rotation let the defending AL champs down; perhaps too much rest and too much dreaming of another world series trip clouded their approach, but each starter failed to answer the bell. Joe Cohen, Ted Phillips, and Brian Beak combined for 12.2 uninspired innings of 22 hit, 14 run (all earned) pitching.


Syracuse over San Diego (3-0)


Hero: The Syracuse bull pen. As Syracuse begins its quest for a repeat title, their bull pen proved the difference in this series, throwing 9 innings with out giving up a single run. Syracuse' relief core allowed just 4 hits over those 9 frames, along with 6 base on balls and 10 strike outs.


Chump: Lloyd Gibson. Finding his team down 1 game to none, Lloyd toed the rubber in the bottom of the first inning already given a 6-0 lead by the potent San Diego offense. Needing only a quality start to send the series back home tied 1-1, Lloyd failed to record a single out in his frame, giving up 11 runs (9 earned) on 3 walks and 5 basehits (including a grandslam before getting the hook) Leaving San Diego's psyche deflated, they managed just 2 runs on 10 hits over the next 17 innings before packing the bags and heading off into the sunset and next season.


Boise over Little Rock (3-2)

Hero: Clarence Guiel. All Star slugger Clarence Guiel lead the Boise charge into round 3 going 8 for 20 at the plate with 4 homers, 8 runs, 8 rbis and 4 stolen bases. With Boise facing an onslaught of key injuries, Guiel responded by taking the bull by the hornes and leading Boise into the divisional championship

Chump: Vic Sosa. The 1.000 + OPS slugging CF for Little Rock was counted on as a balance to the offense that Boise expected out of their big bats. Rather than shining like a star, Sosa made more like his late career cousin by striking out more often than collecting hits. Just 4 hits in the series on 18 at bats, along w/ 1 homer and 2 rbis, while scoring thrice was not nearly enough to sustain Little Rocks early 2 games to 1 lead. Further compounding his misery, it was Sosa's in ability to field an otherwise routing flyball in the 5th inning of game one that proceeding to a pair of Boise home runs to Guiel and Newfield, taking a 3-2 good ol' good one into a 7-2 Boise domination on the way to an easy 8 run Boise win.

Tuesday, August 25, 2009

Heros and Chumps...

Heros and Chumps of the divisional play-in series



Tacoma over Iowa City (3-2)

Hero: Al Smith. With the road team taking all 5 games of this set, Al Smith continualy came up big each night gong 8 for 22 at the plate w/ a pair of homers, 6 runs scored and 5 rbi. Al set the pace in game 2 w/ 4 rbi, and scored the winning run to close out the series, getting on base ahead of a Cory Witt homer in the 7th

Chump: Ted Wilson. Filling in at CF, a position he's ill equiped to handle, Ted managed to boot 5 errors in the series. While he put up some nice numbers in the 2 Iowa City wins, he managed just 1 hit in 13 at bats in the 3 losses. Perhaps a return to his more comfortable LF position will help not only his mental state, but also his bat next season.





Salem over Jacksonville (3-0)

Hero: Galahad Dale. Taking the mound for Salem in Game 3, Galahad was given the opportunity to close out the series and give the Witch Doctor's pitching staff some much needed rest prior to round 2. Additionally, Salem was starring in the face Jesus Fernedaz and Oscar Bauman for potential games 4 & 5. Dale responded with 9 innings of 1 hit, 1 run baseball while striking out 5 and walking just 3 verse the potent Jacksonville offense.



Chump: Oscar Baumann. While most of Ripkenville was eargerly anticipating the expected pitching dual between Jacksonville Ace Oscar Baumann and Salem ace Chad Lamb, Baumann was spending too much time on the talk show circuit pimping his bid for an unprecedented third straight Cy Young award. All that patting himself on the back must have worn out his highly prized arm as immediatley walked 3 batters, gave up 3 singles allowed a stolen base and gave up 4 runs in the first inning. Oscare would settle down and allow only 1 additional run on 3 hits over the next five inning, however the damage was done as his opposition on the mound, Chad Lamb, was in the midst of an 8 inning, 3 hit gem. Setting the tone for what would be a series sweep, Baumann was last seen taking a bat to the Gatorade bucket.



San Diego over New York (3-1)

Hero: Frank Manzillo. Frank's 16th inning blast in game 4 propelled the San Diego Zonkey's into a round 2 matchup with Syracuse. Frank hit .444 over the 4 game set while scoring 5 runs.



Chump: Carlos Zurbaran. While trailing 2 games to 1, but with a 1 run lead and 2 outs, a 5th game seemed almost certain for the New York Evil Empire. That is until Carlos turned an otherwise routine groundball off the bat of Ramon Campos into an error. Further complicating the matter, Zurbaran failed to cover second base on the following pitch as Campos quickly stole second base, setting up the game tieing single to right field off the bat of pinch hitter Horace Finley. When Manzillo's 16th inning blast cleared the center field wall, New York residents were all ready referring to Zurbaran with the same affection Boston residents have held for Bucky Dent and Aaron Boone. With nearly 17 millon due to Carlos F'n Zurbaran over the next 2 seasons, look for his name to crop up on the rumor mill next season.



Little Rock over Portland (3-0)

Hero: Sean Flores and Blake High. Its not often that your pitching coach and bullpen coach get the nod for series hero, then again its not often in the high pressure of the playoffs that your pitching staff gives up 2, 1 and 1 run over 29 innings. Geoff Rolen, Bronson Brown, and Brett Borders were particularly leathal to the Portland attack paving the way into round 2.



Chump: Jay Paronto. Not only did Jay give up the game lossing 2 run blast in the 10th inning of game 1, but Jay managed to turn a 3-1 defecit heading into the 9th inning of deciding game 3 into a sure 6-1 deficit. As this 10 year vet nears the end of the line, he'd like to be remembered for more than the two hit batters and two 2-run homers he provided Portland in his 2 innings of work this postseason. There's always the senior PGA tour Jay, time to look up John Smoltz.

Friday, August 21, 2009

What could have been....

Inspired by my comments in the forum, as well as an earlier TC I sent over to San Jose on general advice to prepare for a draft (nothing earth shattering, just what I learned thru my 1st 2 drafts) that went unresponded to despite several back and forths early on, combined w/ the franchise's terrible draft results the last several seasons under different ownership, I thought I'd take a swing at what this franchise drafted, and what they could have drafted. I will assume they had the ability to view all draftees, which I know isn't true, but impossible to know whom they knew about and whom they didn't. While the major league franchise is severly lacking in talent, the minor league system could be the best in the system if the previous coaches would have drafted better. Throw in an IFA or 2 of top quality and they'd have a future as bright as anyones.



So w/o further ado:



Season 1, round 1, pick 6: Selected Alex_Hansen currently on the DL w/ the big league club. Alex was immediatly sloted to AAA showing mediocre results at best for the last 4 seasons, and showed similar results w/ the big league club this year, though the 4.56 era this season is better than one would have expected. None the less, mediocre splits, velocity, sink and pitch selection makes this projected 70 overall projected pitcher a questionable pick for 6th overall.



Could have had: Kent_Stinent drafted 1 spot later, this below average defensive SS sports a solid bat currently holding a .830 ops w/ Helena's major league squad w/ a little more room to grow.



Looks like some Type A free agents wiped out the other high picks, but probably explains all the compensation picks in recent seasons. The 92 wins in season 1 tells me those free agents were likely worth it.



Season 2, round 1, pick 24: Selected Pat_Donetello For this late in the 1st round, this is a pretty good selection. Future closer in waiting, w/ some struggle vs Lefties, his other skills are all top of the charts. Should be ready for the majors in another season or 2.



round 2, unsigned 2b, could have had a very solid catcher currently residing w/ Fresno's High A club: Shane Fields. After rooting away in rookie ball for 3 seasons despite great stats, Fields has finally moved up to High A this season w/ a very nice .877 OPS and 24 homers.



Season 3, round 1, pick 15: Selected Jim_Bickerton another mediocre starting pitcher w/ poor splits, sink and pitch selection. Went 4-10 in AA this season, and should really ever pitch above that level. Could have had Rod_Schultz slugger extreme. Having put up an OPS over 1.000 each of his 3 minor league seasons, Rod is going to be a stud hitter for Boise in due time.



round 1, pick 35: selected Tony_Downs not a bad pick overall, above average defender at 2b, and a decent skill set at the plate. Could have done worse than his .876 OPS thru 3 levels of minor league play, but 2b sometimes seem easy to come by, could have had a very solid starting pitching prospect in Clay_Wiggingont Clay isn't a top of the roation starter, but for late in round 1, he should prove a solid #3 once he fully recovers from injury and a bit more seasoning.



Round 2, unsigned pick, could have had Jim_Nelson a great fielding SS w/ enough bat to make the majors.



Season 4, round 1, pick 5: Selected Bubba_Paul despite a name that belongs on East Bound and Down, Bubba never had a shot at the majors despite his 7.0 signing bonus. Bubba's got a great sinking fastball, but mediocre splits and terrible control aside from being way to high to take a closer. Could have had: Alex_BAker despite an eventual move to LF from CF, he's got the stick to rake in the majors. May be being pushed a tad too quickly, but w/ a .999 OPS thru 4 levels of minor league ball, Baker is going to impact the majors soon enough.



Round 1, pick 18: unsigned LF, could have had Dion_Heathcot While Baker's defense forces him to a corner spot, Dion should win a gold glove in CF one day. Even better he's got the skills to be a great switch hitting lead off hitter.



round 1, pick 33: selected Chris_McDonald a solid selection late in the 1st as Chris projects as a solid set up man or closer in the future.



round 1, pick 39, 40 & 41 brough the Franchise: Marc_Lorainne Matt_Gilmore and Denys_Sung

Lorainne is an average looking 2b prospect, not too much to complain about at this level, Gilmore is a great defensive 3b, but a poorly projected 34 batting eye will limit him once he hits the higher levels of the minors, and Sung is either a mediocre defensive catcher w/ a poor batting eye, or a poor DH w/ occasional backup catcher ability.



Could have had: Ed_Rijo a similarly defensive catcher as sund w/ a great batting eye (83 projected compared to Sung's 43) and average skills across.



Ted_Traschel a very solid long reliever that's about 10 stamina rating points away from being a dominate starter.



Seth_Coleman a very solid projected #2 or #3 in the majors.



Season 5, round 1, pick 6 brought them Marty_Governale a solid left handed RF prospect that hits lefties well, but struggles w/ righties a bit. There were some slightly better or equal prospects at other postions still available, but tough to complain about an 85 projected RF w/ your 1st pick.



Round 1, pick 18 brought in Ty_Acosta who's an OK prospect, but lacking in defense enough to push into LF or RF, but not nearly strong enough at the plate to hit at those positions (43 eye plus poor makeup-34)



Could have had Fritz_Brocail who doesn't have the defense that Ty does, probably a 1b long term, but has a significantly stronger bat and makeup.



Round 1, pick 33 brought them in Giomar_Terreja who's a poor fielding 3b that struggles vs lefties (vL 11) as a right hander. Giomar has great power potential, but that 32 makeup will hold back his other skills, and leave him in the minors.



Could have had Dan_Downs great looking 1b/Dh prospect, even better at the plate than Brocail. Having those 2 in your minor league lineup at 3 & 4 would help produce several minor league championships on their way up to the majors.



The other 2 remaining 1st round supplemental picks brough in a pretty solid 1b, not on the level of Downs or Brocail, but solid none the less and a great defensive CF who will likely struggle at the plate a bit. Still could be a solid defensive replacement in the majors and part time starter one day. Hard to argue w/ either pick.



So in summary, there were certainly a couple of hits, but far too many misses. I doubt the previous coaches had the ability to see all those kids, but the minors league system could be one of the most stacked systems in today's game w/ a little more planning.

Season 5 IFA roundup

Assuming any IFA worth signing has already been signed, here's a quick run down of the top kids coming into the states to play ball.

The top 2 IFAs this season, were also the top 2 highest paid kids on the market. With pitching at such a premium, these 2 kids are pushed to the top of the list, and while neither is the next Oscar Baumann in waiting, they should both end up the top 1 or 2 starters for their respective organizations in the next several seasons:

Vasco_Lopez was brought into the Fresno organization for a nice crisp 20.8 millon. Projecting out to an 81 overall pitcher w/ a heavy fastball and 12-6 curve that will eventually make knees buckle. Lopez also sports and above average slider, average palm ball, and a below average changeup w/ pinpoint control and solid stamina. While he'll require a full 5 days of rest most times thru the rotation, and lacks top end velocity, at 22 he sports enough moxy to lead fresno into the playoffs after a quick trip thru the minors.

Julio_Beltran was signed for an even 20.0 million by Colorado. It would be easy to debate over which of these 2 pitchers is the better prospect, but certainly any organization would be happy to have either. At 21, Beltran is also on the fasttrack, throwing a ++ fastball topping out in the upper 90s, fantastic control and splits and enough stamina to expect multiple complete games each season. Julio also throws 3 more average to above average pitches, but tends to get his ball up in the zone. W/ Colorado's parent club planning to move to a new location, Beltran would be best served in a park that limits home runs a bit.

Benito_Padilla checks in as our 3rd ranked IFA. A slick fielding 3B with the arm strenght of a bull, Padilla is as well polished as any 18 year old you're going to find w/ his exceptional makeup. Padilla sports 40+ home run potential in his huge frame, but last year's knee injury has zapped him of much of his previous speed. If Benito can stay healthy as he makes his way up to the majors, he should land in the middle of Pittsburgh's offense and will make his $15.6 millon price tag look like a huge bargin.

Our 4th ranked IFA prospect came to Florida for $15.7 millon. Emillo_Martin projects as a solid, if not spectacular bat. Just enough Defense to stick in RF, but perhaps not a big enough bat for many people's taste in LF. As an 18 year old, Emillo is going to need a full 5 season's of minor league development to improve his durability and full tap into this projections. However, once he maxes out in his mid-20's he appears capable of provided a solid #3 hole bat with his superior eye and +power/contact skills.

Gorkys_Gonzalez checks in as our 5th rated IFA. An emphasis on pitching pushed him up a couple of rungs, but this kid certainly looks like a keeper. Given enough development time, Gonzalez appears as a perfect #2 or #3 pitcher for a top rotation, perhaps even a #1 for a middling rotation. Great control and splits, as well as great velocity and sink complement 4 slightly below average to above average pitches. Repeated arm injuries have several scouts shaking their head at his $8.9 millon price tag, but Iowa City is banking on him reaching the majors in due time and proving the critics wrong.

Esmaylin_Nunez comes in as the 6th rated prospect. While he projects a slightly below average SS, he's got enough defensive capability to be a gold glove 2b or 3b with enough contact, batting eye, splits, speed and baserunning to make him an ideal #2 hole hitter. Salem's intern manager brought him in for $9.2 millon; we should expect to see this 18 year old hit the majors in 5-6 more seasons as Salem's current major leaguers begin to price themselves out of the market.

Our #7 prospect is Odalis_Cruz contains a very solid bat. Odalis would have moved up a bit higher in the rankings if not for his questionable defense. Odalis doesn't quite have the ideal bat for 1b/lf, but then again many teams would gladly take his projections right now in either spot for their major league club. A lower stamina should limit him to about 130-140 games a season in the majors, but proper rest will ensure he's full rested for the stretch run. Signed w/ Portland for $14.8 millon

RJ_Vargas is our first catcher to hit the rankings at #8. RJ has abover average arm strength, accuracy and average pitch calling w/ an exceptional batting eye and contact. RJ will need 1 or 2 games off a week to maintain rested, but he will certainly make San Diego look smart for spending $8.3 millon on this 18 year old.

Benitto_Guilen is the 2nd catcher to make this list and checks in at #9. Benito has been so well trained at the Molino schools for catcher that even Geoge Grande is blushing. Benito has just enough contact skills, batting eye and vsL projections to find himself in a future platoon on the majore league level. However, his very low health ratings may keep him from ever reaching the majors. Having already found his way to the 60 day DL, several GM's are quitely smiling at the $8 millon Trenton dropped on this future catcher.

Alberto_Picaso is one IFA scouts will say paints a pretty picture. Our #10 IFA is an 18 year old 2b signed by Minnesota for just over 7 millon. Picasso projects to be a about average in every 2b skill on the major league level, combining to make him an occasional all-star. With great durability and health, he may just challenge Ripken for the consecutive games played streak, which would be awfully fitting in the world named after him.

Best tools:
Power: Benito Padilla - Pittsburgh
Batting eye: Emillo Martin - Florida
Speeed: Louis Hernadez - Louisville
Fielding Tools: Louis Hernandez - Louisville

Fastball: Julio Beltran - Colorado
Breaking Ball: Vasco Lopez - Fresno

Wild Card Round up

Wild Card round up and playoff seeds:

AL:
1) Montreal (locked)
2) Philly (locked)
3) Salem/Tacoma (likely)
4) Iowa City/Jacksonville (Jacksonville is 2 games back)
5) Salem/Tacoma (likely)
6) Jacksonville holds a 3 game lead over Trenton and Helena, and a 4 game lead over Salt Lake.

Jacksonville is looking pretty darn good for the playoffs, its only a matter if they can catch Iowa City or not over the next 5 games.

NL:
1) Syracuse
2) Boise (2 games behind Syracuse)
3) Little Rock (3 games back)
4) New York (Locked in)
5) San Diego (5 games behind Boise w/ 5 remaining, expect to see them land the 5 seed)
6) Portland (4 up on Fresno, 5 up on Charlotte, looking pretty solid for the last spot)

How the AL West was won??? (Part 5)

1 game into their 2nd to last series of the season, Tacoma and Salem find themselves in a dead heat for the AL West crown. The season series was split as well 5-5, and both have an identical record w/n the division w/ only divisional games remaing, meaning that if we end up tied at the end of the season, the tie breaker's coming down to run differential. Salem currently has a +110 run differential, while Tacoma is at +85. The 25 run differential would seem a lot to overcome in 5 games, meaning all Salem has to do is pretty much win out and hope that Tacoma doesn't win a game or two 15-0.

Salem has 2 games remaining vs San Jose, and the final 3 w/ Helana, while Tacoma has 2 left w/ Helena and the final 3 w/ San Jose. Frankly both teams should sweep San Jose, but as things stand, Tacoma will face their 2 best starters in the final season w/ San Jose now under computer control. On the flip side, Tacoma misses Helena's 18-6 Ace Bruce Dougherty, as he's scheduled to open up the last series @ Salem. Certainly the next 2 nights are huge; Salem needs to take care of business and hope that Helena can win a game or 2 vs Tacoma, or face the prospects of a much win vs Dougherty and company.

One thing that is more certain; both teams hold a 4 game lead over the Iowa City I wanna score more's for the 3rd playoff seed and a 5 game lead over Jacksonville for the final playoff spot. W/ each team getting games vs San Jose, we should see the 3 seed and 5 seed coming out of this division, meaning our likely 1st round opponents will be Iowa City and Jacksonville. Frankly, neither gives me a nice warm fuzzy feeling in a 5 game set, but it certainly would be nice to be opposite Montreal in the playoffs.

Tuesday, August 18, 2009

How the AL West was won??? (Part 4)

Following our big 3 game set, Salem and Tacoma find themselves in a deadlock at the top of the AL West standings thanks to a 2-1 series win by Tacoma. Tacoma brought out their big boy bats for the first 2 games, using the strength of a Kit Purcell grandslam to jump out to an early 4-1 lead, then a game winning solo shot in the 10th to bring home a victory. Game 2 brought more home run theatrics from Tacoma, by turning a 4-0 defecit into a 7-4 victory w/ 7 runs in the final 3 innings, including a big 3 run shot to tie up the game in the 8th by E Hiller.

Salem finally secured a game in the series final behind the dominate picthing of Keith Bagwell, allowing just 4 hits and 1 solo homer thru 8 stellar innings before Rolaids Relief canidate Danny McCrarken sealed the victory for his 44th save with a perfect 9th inning of work.

Salem and Tacoma have split their season series as well as finding themselves both 6 games atop Helena for the AL West title, Tacoma clearly holds the advantage going forward w/ a softer schedule leading up to their season ending series vs Helena and San Jose.

Meanwhile, Helena has managed to pull even with Jacksonville for the last WC spot. Trenton and Salt Lake City (Salem's next two opponents over the next 8 games) find themselves 3 & 4 games behind for the last WC spot respectively. Time is quickly fading out w/ just 14 games remaining for all teams. There are certainly a handful of important games leading up to the playoffs for the last playoff spot.

Monday, August 17, 2009

Chase for the WC.

To expand on the AL west race, I'll take a look at Helena's playoff chances. They've managed to hold up their end of the bargin holding serve with the recently surgant Salem Witch Doctors; however holding serve at this point of the season while 7 games back in the standing isn't enough. Time is closing out quickly on the season, so while they face both Tacoma and Salem to close out the season, their best bet at this point in the season comes in chasing down Jacksonville for the final playoff spot.

While Helena has been winning, Jacksonville has been mostly losing (6-12 over their last 18) finding themselves with a slim 2 game margin heading into the final 2 weeks. Both teams have a series w/ Philly who may have just about locked up the 2 seed and could be looking to get their regulars full rest and playing some younger talent, but will still be a tough win any night. Otherwise, Helana's other games look a shade tougher, meaning they've got their work cut out for them. However, Jacksonville is quickly wearing down w/ 7 of their 9 regulars under 93% health, and couple down in the low 80s. Meanwhile Helana has nearly everyone at full health, and a 3 game set w/ San Jose should provide them ample opportunity to rest a few kids here and there for the kick drive.

Jacksonville has a top notch pitching staff, but with so many players on the brink of exhaustion, will they be able to hold up down the stretch? Trenton and Salt Lake both remain in the picture, each 5 and 6 games behind Jacksonville repectively and will need to make things happen quickly in order to be a threat heading into the final weekend.

How the AL West was won??? (Part 33 1/3)

Aside from the blantent Naked Gun reference the winds of change have blown thru the AL south. Despite 2 blown leads in the 9th inning turning into deflating defeats, Salem managed to take advantage of their schedule and pull out a 7-3 stretch, while Tacoma struggled with the top 2 teams in the AL (Philly and Montreal) while slumping to 3-7, including weekend sweep at the hands of Montreal. Salem now finds itself w/ a 1 game lead heading into its pivotal 3 game home series with Tacoma this afternoon. Salem even managed to give many of its key players significant rest while taking advantage of the 2 sets verse rebuilding Boston and has aligned its top 3 pitchers for this series while getting their regular position players up to 99 or 100% health. Tacoma remains mostly at full health, but has a few appearing on the brink of heading into the low to mid 90s health wise while aligning 3 straight solid lefties for this series in an attempt to minimize the effectiveness of Hartley and company.

Game 1:
Lamb (12-10, 2.98 era) vs Hansell (17-7, 3.82 era)

Game 2:
Dale (11-10, 4.48 era) vs Cedeno (13-6, 3.84 era)

Game 3:
Bagwell (15-5, 3.98 era) vs Cambridge (12-8, 4.08 era)

On paper, Salem would appear to have the pitching advantage vs Tacoma's first 2 "crafty lefties" throwing a combination of slow and slower, while Cambringe can bring the heat, but suffers from control issues. On the flip side, Tacoma has the advantage at the plate. The key to the series lies in getting into Tacoma's pitching staff out of their comfort zone they've grown used to in their ultra pitcher friendly park while playing in Salem's more neutral park.

Tacoma has the easier closing stretch to the season, so its imparative for Salem to hold serve at home and get a series victory, while a series sweep could blow open the division chase.

Thursday, August 13, 2009

How the AL West was won??? (Part 2)

After the first 2 series (7 games total) things stand exactly where they started with Tacoma holding a 3 game lead over Salem and a 10 game lead over Helena as all 4 teams went 4-3 over this 7 game stretch. While Salem would have liked to have picked up a game, we've been able to rest several key starters for the stretch kick, and aside from today's injury to Alex Gomez, are just about full go heading into the final kick. Meanwhile, Helena was going to need a big kick to make up that much ground, and while there's no shame in going 4-3, its not going to be enough to win the division. Of course on the other side of things, Jacksonville's late slide has enhanced the chances of Helena to steal the last WC spot, 4 games behind Jacksonville along w/ Trenton and the surging Salt Lake City.

Tacoma starts a 10 game stretch w/ 7 vs Philly and 3 more vs Montreal, while Salem gets 7 vs Boston and 3 vs Iowa City. W/ Salem sitting 8 games behind Philly for the 2 seed (Tacoma would be 5), this coach is now pulling for Philly to sweep those 7 games, or at least win 5 of them while hopefully taking care of busines, especially vs Iowa City which is now leading their division and a mear 1 game behind Salem (4 behind current division leader Tacoma) for that 3 seed (and hence avoiding Montreal as long as possible). After this kick, the 2 square off for a final showdown, heading into the last 2 weeks of the season. Salem really needs to find itself tied up w/ Tacoma heading into that series, so I'm hoping for a 7-3 stretch over the next 10 or better, while Tacoma drops 6 or more vs that tough schedule. MVP canidate Kit Purcell is just getting healthy, so they'll have their potent offense on full fire as they try to tackle the top 2 organizations in the AL

Tuesday, August 11, 2009

How the AL West was won??? (Part 1)

with Z's post about the WC standing, I'd thought I'd start taking a semi-indepth, semi-regular look at my battle for the AL West. Heading into play this afternoon, Tacoma held a 3 game lead over Salem and a strong 10 game lead over Helena. Both Salem and Tacoma look strong for a WC spot at worst, though Trenton (and possible Helena) could throw a wrench into both team's postseason plans w/ a strong late season push.

Looking out at my future schedule, I noticed a 3 game home set vs Tacoma staring on 8/17. I figured it was put up or shut up time for Salem if they want to win this division and compete for the 2 and/or 3 seed and thus avoiding Powerhouse Montreal as long as possible in the playoffs. Tacoma is enterring their toughest stretch of the season, facing a 4 game set vs playoff bound Jacksonville, a 3 game set for Houston, 7 vs Philly and close out w/ 3 vs Montreal before heading into Salem. For those not up to doing the math, thats a combined 308 wins vs only 208 losses; considerring the 7 games vs philly compared to the 3 vs Houston, that's a 17 game stretch against an competitiong winning over 60% of their games.

Meanwhile, Salem gets a bit of a breather while resting some of their tiring stars facing the suddenly slumping Burlington squad for 4 nights, 3 @ Tampa Bay, 7 dates w/ Boston and 3 games @ Iowa City. Despite all but a 3 game set vs Boston coming on the road, that's 17 games vs teams that have won a combined 221 wins vs 295 losses (42.8%). Clearly the advantage goes to Salem, can they take advantage of it?

And not to completely dismiss Helena, though 10 games may be too tough to make up, during that same stretch they play a roughly .500 schedule. If they can catch fire, while the other 2 struggle, they could be looking to hit the final 2 weeks w/ a good shot to steal a division crown. Of course they also end their season w/ consecutive road dates @ Philly, @ Burlington, @ Tacoma and @ Salem. That may be too much for even Montreal to think about going much over .600 ball, making their task at hand that much harder.

I figure given our schedules, Salem needs to jump out to at worst a tie, and preferrable a couple game lead in the division by the time they meet up w/ Tacoma on the 17th. Things started out well w/ a Salem win and Tacoma lose this afternoon. I'll be back to update things more in the coming days.

Saturday, August 1, 2009

Deadline Deals

With the trade deadline just 48 hours away there have been two trades that have just been accepted!

The first trade is between the Louisville Long Balls and the Little Rock Jaeger Bombs. A 1 for 1 deal, where the Long Balls sent 3b/ss Gregg Mann to the Jaeger Bombs for 3b/util Jesse Hoyt. Interesting trade as both players are very similar, Louisville gets the nod here by ditching a big contract in a rebuilding mode and possibly getting the better player.

The second trade is between Wild Card contender the Helena Grizzlies and the Colorado Mountain Goats. In their push for the playoffs Helena went out and bolstered its rotation with sp Julio Gonzalez. The team gave up 2b Ahmad Thurman and lr / spot starter Lonny Johnson, who has some very nice pitch projections and could be a solid pitcher for gomiami, wherever the team moves next season.

NL Wild Card Race

In the NL Wild Card Race it is quite a bit tighter with the top handful of teams. Leading the NLWC is the San Diego Zonkeys (56-45). The team leads over the #3 spot by 3.0 games. Currently in 2nd place in the NLWC is the Charlotte Heavy Petting Zoo (54-47), who's 9 game winning streak has not only propelled them into the #2 WC spot but also back into the division race where they are only down 5.0 games to the Little Rock Jaeger Bombs (59-42).

In third place in the Wild Card Race and only 1 game back of a potential WC spot are the Portland Hippies (53-48) and the Fresno Griz (53-48). Both teams are over 10 games out of their respective divisions and baring either a collapse by a division rival or a very hot streak the teams only playoff hopes seem to be in the WC race. Behind both Portland and Fresno is the Dover Devils (49-52) who, even being 3 games below .500, are only 5.0 games out of the Wild Card race. And last, but not least, the Minnesota Conspiracy (46-55) are only 8.0 games out. There are a few teams who are more then eight games out, but somewhat close in the Florida FlyTekks (45-56) and the Pittsburgh Pranksters (45-56) both 9.0 games out.

Good Luck to the NL as the season continues into the last 60 games!

AL Wild Card Race

As the trade deadline nears, the AL Wild Card Race is starting to heat up. The leader in the ALWC is the Salem Witch Doctors (59-42), who are only 1 game back in their division to the Tacoma Amber Flashlongs (60-41). Salem is leading the #1 Wild Card spot by 1 game to the Trenton Generals (58-43), who own the #2 spot currently and are looking to return to the playoffs after a one season absence.

There is a small gap between the next few teams that are battling it out for the right to play a few extra games. The Iowa City I Wanna Score More (53-48) hold the #3 spot and are 5.0 games back of Trenton. Behind Iowa City in 4th in the ALWC is the Helena Grizzlies (52-49). The Grizzlies are 6.0 games back of the #2 spot and making the Playoffs. And the last team of mention currently is the Burlington Black and Blue Brachiosaurus (51-50). Burlington is just a game over .500 but has the pitching staff to possibly make some noise late. Burlington is 8.0 games back of the #2 WC spot.

Good Luck to everyone in their quest for the Playoffs!