Thursday, July 22, 2010

Top 4 in the AL by the numbers

I'll start w/ an apology to the NL. I was planning to do this for both leagues, but have quickly realized it took long enough just for the AL, so there likely won't be any NL preview unless someone else wants to take the horns. I'll offer a second apology to anyone in the AL that thinks they deserve to be on this list of the top 4; I feel pretty good that these 4 teams will be top in the AL by the time the season ends, but please prove me wrong (just not at my expense).

So w/o further ado, there were 4 teams I thought were head & shoulders above the rest of the AL. Well at least Heads above, as there are still some pretty strong teams that will contend for the WC spots and division crowns and certainly there will be a trade or 2 that will turn teams from pumpkins into chariots by the time the playoffs roll around. Anyhoo, those 4 are largely the top 4 teams from last season, Trenton, Kansas City, Salem, and near playoff team Wichita that has made 2 huge offseason moves to put themselves up there amongst this group. However, rather than just spewing my worthless opinion (who needs my $0.02 anyways?), I thought I'd put some ratings analysis behind it, and see if I can properrly rank them. So here we go.

We'll start w/ the offense and the likely starting 9. I'm not going to worry myself w/ durability or health ratings. Injuries will happen, and players will need rest, but I want to look what each team's best lineup will be, which assuradly they'll throw out there once the "real" season begins.

Team: Con/Pwr/vsL/vsR/Eye/Brn/Spd Tot Pwr Tot OBP Tot Spd Tot Offense
A 70 65 71 70 74 61 66 3.5 3.51 1.3 8.31
B 80 40 66 67 62 74 77 3.15 3.52 1.5 8.17
C 78 64 59 65 76 58 75 3.43 3.54 1.3 8.27
D 64 58 62 73 65 55 63 3.21 3.26 1.2 7.67

A little commentary, using factors that went into power, obp, and the running game, I figured out an offensive production number for each rating, a relative worth and a total offensive output. Perhaps there are better ways to do it, but this was off the top of my head, using things that made sense in my mind, then went to see how it shaked out, which seemed to match what my gut told me before I started. Team C & Team A appear to be pretty close, though Team A has a little more power. Team B has about 10% less power than both A & C, but makes up for it w/a 15% advantage in the speed and base running catagory and in the end, ends up about 2% short of teams A & C. Team D falls short in all 3 catagories. I thought their offense would be a little more potent on paper, but they fall about 7-10% short of the top 3.

Pitching:

I'll start by looking at starters, and by starters, I mean your starters in the playoffs, and any GM/Coach w/ his salt is going to get his stud out there twice in a 5 game set, and 3 times in a 7 game set. So I took each team's top 3, doubled up on 1 & 2, since you can expect them twice, and came up w/ an average starter.

Team Stm/Cnt/vsL/vsR/Vel/GdB/P1/P2/P3/P4/P5
A 87 89 77 85 35 83 88 79 50 63 43
B 75 76 82 86 55 76 76 72 61 49 22
C 71 84 79 78 63 81 83 73 65 48 19
D 83 74 73 74 72 51 77 64 58 55 31

Overall, these 3 sets of starters looks pretty even. Team A won't strike many out, but doesn't expect a lot of long balls. Team D will mow thru your lineup, but expect some flyball homers. Team B has the best splits, while Team C kind of falls in the middle in every area. Team A has the best combo of control and stamina to get you deep into a ball game, they also have the best set of P1 & P2, w/ a solid kicker in the P5 department. As mentioned, Team B's splits are great, but their top 2 pitchers fall behind A & C w/o the control of either. Overall, I'd say the fall just a notch below A & C like they did in the offensive catagory, with Team D coming up clearly in 4th.

Back of the bullpen:
Middle relief is nice, but these guys starters are designed to carry you deep into games so you can turn it over to your setup men and closer. I took each teams top 3 bullpeners or starters turned playoff relievers to rank each set. I'm only looking at P1 & P2, as many relievers lack those last 3 pitches.

Team Stm/Cnt/vsL/vsR/Vel/GdB/P1/P2
A 38 88 79 77 84 66 81 83
B 51 86 81 71 88 80 73 72
C 21 90 68 65 78 74 86 82
D 45 77 80 71 73 65 84 75

Again its hard to seperate teams A, B & C. All 3 have similar control, A & B dominate in splits over C, while C has the top set of P1 & P2. Team B has the best groundball ratio, meaning you won't see many walk-off homers, but questionable pitches for the back of a bullpen. And once again, team D comes up short of the top 3. Overall, I'd say A & B are tied for the best back of the bullpen, with C coming up just a shade short, and D trailing along, clearly in 4th.

Pitching depth:

Injuries are going to happen, starters will need rest during the season, and nothing can derail a championship run than losing your top starter once the playoffs begin.

Team Stm/Cnt/vsL/vsR/Vel/GdB/P1/P2/P3/P4
A 59 85 81 71 79 48 74 63 43 43
B 82 73 71 74 53 78 72 77 51 26
C 61 84 50 58 77 82 80 73 41 21
D 58 71 66 72 63 79 87 67 44 44

First, Team B's depth, while looking strong at the moment, is highly influenced by only carring 9 pitchers at the moment, 5 solid starters, but short of middle relief. For the playoffs, this shouldn't be much of an issue, but it could cost them a few games mid-season when they're forced to turn to crappy long men. Aside from that, Teams A comes out on top w/ solid control and splits, a little lacking on the groundball/flyball ration, but a solid set of pitches. Next is D w/ a great set of pitches, but just acceptable control, but decent splits and a great gb/fb ratio. Team C comes in 3rd w/ great perhiphals, but terrible splits, a solid combination for middle relief, but perhaps a bit troublesome for the back of the rotation or injury relief. Final team B comes in last w/ the previously mentioned concerns. A couple of injuries could send this staff to a 10 game losing streak, hampered even more by a tight team payroll.

Now, I'll turn my attention to defense, which will be a little more subjective and based upon positions. I'll skip presenting the numbers and just go w/ my thoughts since its a lot tougher to make a defensive determination w/ so many different ratings mattering to different position.

Behind the plate:

Team A clearly comes out on top w/ the top pitch caller amongst projected playoff starters, not to mention the best overall defensive backup for the regular season and great depths in the minors should injuries occur. Team D comes in 2nd, well behind team A in defensive catching amongst projected playoff starters, but with a very solid pitch calling backup w/ an 'OK' arm. Team C comes in next with an ok defensive catcher behind the plate, and an above average backup. Team D comes in last, though not by much w/ a so-so defensive catcher and a great defensive backup w/ no bat. Probably the best bet to use their backup as a defensive replacement.

Up the middle (SS-2b-CF)

Team B comes out ahead in this catagory, especially at 2b and CF, however there will be some worries w/ their regular SS defense. Teams A & D, look to be pretty close and in a tie for 2nd w/ solid defense at all 3 spots, GG level at SS, with A having a better centerfielder, and D having the better defensive second baseman. Team C takes 4th w/ equally solid defense at SS, but a step or 2 behind A & D at CF & 2b.

At the corners (3b-RF-LF-1b)

OK, so defense doesn't matter so much at LF and a little less at 1b, but both can cost you a ball game or 2. Team A has the best defense at 3b and RF, with potential gold glovers in both spots, not to mention solid defenders in LF & 1b. As team B slides their 3b to SS, their going to be hurting in 3b defense, not to mention the outfield corners as they continue to slide. right now, I'd have to consider them the weakest at the corners, but could improve rapidly w/ a great defensive SS (which they have on the bench) and sacraficine some offense elsewhere. Team C is a little weak in 3b arm, but solid at the other spots, while team D takes 2nd in this catagory w/ solid play at third, and solid defense in the outfield.

Overall defense:

Unless team B fixes its projected SS situation, which will help 3b & RF, team A takes the cake in this catagory, followed by D, then team B, then team C. However, as noted, team B could jump to the top by sacraficing a little offense.

One final note, all teams' bench seem to be about even. each has a solid defensive replacement, a solid defensive catcher, a little speed, not much pop but all players that could fill in for an injury. No body that is screaming for playing time, but all that can give the occasional rest.

So to wrap it all up.

Team A takes top honors in offense, starting pitching, back of the bullpen, pitching depth, and overall defense.
Team B takes top honors for the back of the bullpen, a close 3rd in offense and starting pitching, a lot to worry about in pitching depth, and the worst defense of the 4, but the potential to be the best.
Team C takes top honors in offense, and starting pitching, 3rd in the back of the bullpen, 3rd in pitching depth and defense
Team D takes 2nd in defense and pitching depth, and 4th in offense, starting pitching and the back of the bullpen.

I thought team D would be more competitive when I started this, however, last year's regular season wins champ has a tough road ahead if it wants to keep that crown. Team D is Trenton

Team B comes in 3rd, though not by much. Defense could be an issue and depth could be a huge issue if there are multiple injuries. However its offense (particularly their speed) and starting pitching gives them a legit shot at the W-S crown. Team B is Kansas City

Team C comes in 2nd w/ great offense and great starting pitching. Their back of the bullpen and defense leave them a notch below top honors, but are probably the 2 easiest areas to fix thru the trade market before the playoffs get here. Team C is Wichita

Team A takes top honors or at least challenges for them across the board. Of course w/ the top payroll, anything less than having the top team on paper would be a sore eye on the GM, while anything less than reclaiming the W-S crown will be a blackeye on the city. Team A is Salem.

Good luck knocking me off my high horse fellas :)

Saturday, July 17, 2010

The Aftermath

There was surprises, mishaps and of course a few max contracts the past few days. While many questioned his tactics, GM Flytekk of the Austin Stunners went out and locked up Chad Lamb, the youngest of the Ace's on the market. Lamb and his three rings left the Anaheim Pepperchuckers for Free Agency and left town because the club could not match the offer that Austin put out. To lure Lamb the Stunners made Thurman Linebrink the highest paid coach in league history. Rumor's sorounded Lamb through the winter that whoever landed Linebrink would have the inside track to landing Lamb. A few franchises headed the advice, as you can see with the $11.5 million salary he commanded. True to the rumor Lamb went ahead and signed with Austin shortly after the hiring of Linebrink was announced.

Also making big news this week in Free Agency was the Kansas City Black and Blue Brachiosaurus. Kansas city GM indiansrck27 went out and re-signed last year's MVP LF Ted Wilson to smaller deal after letting him go just days prior. Wilson was joined by COF Omar Campos, who fits KC's player pattern very well. KC also landed one of the 3 Ace's on the market in Pat Politte, which was some consultation for losing All-Star 2b Philip Cashman, who the team did not even offer a contract to and signed with the Pittsburgh Pranksters for a less then max deal - which surprised many.

The Salem Witch Doctors stuck out on priority number one in Cashman due to an accounting error which left the team with less money then expect and therefore they could not offer a full max deal. Instead the club signed 2b Larry Carver, who is a better offensive player the Cashman is and came cheaper then a full max offer.

 After acquiring Ryan Carr early in Winter Meetings the and declaring their offense the "Best in the League" the Wichita Black Lightning added a key piece to their title hopes in Max Free Agent Ace, Oscar Baumann. Many teams were scared off by his age, 32 and giving him $60 million guaranteed money after he turned 35 but even after the Joe Cohen incident the team was ready to do what it takes to make themselves a contender again.

The Tampa Bay Waves made a push to get back into contention by signing the leagues all time Home Run leader in 3b Achilles Cohen. This should give them a good boost to their offense, Cohen is moving to a slightly less hitter friendly park so his power numbers may fall a bit but non-the-less it was a good signing by the club.

Lastly the Vancouver Giants went out and got another good starter after getting Galahad Dale last season, who they still hope can have some good recovery in a month when he returns. The club signed Len Knott to a hefty contract, which GM Kreller131 did say he might have overspent but said he would do whatever it took to make Vancouver a winner and this was one of those steps.

In this unprecedented free agent class, one that some had been looking forward to for seasons, things may not have shook out exactly as expected, reigning world champs Syracuse Tyrants were unable to secure either of their stud Ace's from last years title run, it brings a whole new look on how this season and seasons to come will play out. After the dust settles I would contend that the Kansas City Black and Blue Brachiosaurus, Wichita Black Lightning and the Salem Witch Doctors come out as the top three teams in the League, followed by the Austin Stunners.

Monday, July 12, 2010

AL MVP, Wilson, Released

In a surprising move to many the Kansas City Black and Blue Brachiosaurus choose to decline their end of reigning AL MVP Ted Wilson. Wilson was scheduled to make $20 million this season.

The club choose to let him go to open up room under the salary cap to offer two max contracts this Winter.

It was an interesting move but one that could backfire if Kansas City is unable to land the players that they are targeting. Losing Wilson also takes away a guy who was just a few stolen bases away from joining the 40/40 club.

Wichita opens Winter with a BANG!

In the Year of Free Agents, Wichita made sure they were not going to be going home empty handed.

The club had cleared almost $62 million to be able to offer two max contracts to Elite Free Agents before the Winter Meetings had started, things changed quickly when the club realized that All-Star 3b Ryan Carr was available the club quickly shifted it's attention to working out a deal to acquire him.

The club started out by declining to offer arbitration to last years starting 3b, Nick Hunter and 2b Ethan Ellis who were both asking for over $7.5 million. The move was cost cutting so the club could reach their $62 million mark but quickly offered the opening for Carr in the lineup.

Carr, who has played most of his career for the Sioux Falls Badlands Franchise who's new owner has decided to rebuild the team. Carr agreed to a sign and trade extension before the trade was completed, signing a $39.5 million, 5 year deal.

In return for Carr the Badlands received last year's #15 pick, 2b prospect Jeff Bradford, who projects to be a very good every day 2b along with power hitting LF/1B Felipe Romero and closer Colby Friedrich.

"We are very excited to be able to agree to terms to the sign and trade deal for Ryan Carr," said GM Zhawks," We had saved our money to make a push for an Elite pitching staff but the money is better spent here and will give us a top notch lineup for years to come."

Friday, July 9, 2010

Free Agent Bonanza

You can't help but notice all the marquee players available in this years Free Agent Pool. You almost wonder where to start? With arguably the best players in the league and Hall of Famers too all available to the highest bidder this year many franchises are 'Miami Heating' their roster's in hopes of landing some of the games best. Almost every team in the league expects to have the money to offer a Max Contract to a player or two, with some of the leagues top teams having multiple offers at their disposal. Where player's will land is still a mystery as many are guarding their futures tight, nobody has yet decided to create their own TV Show to make their decision known.

With that let's get these meaningless introductions of this Free Agent class underway!


(This post will be a work in progress - I will publish it with every player added.)

First let's take a look at the players that are likely to get multiple max offers out of the gate.



Do I even need to speak about Chad Lamb's resume? He is a 4 time All-Star with a Cy Young and 3 World Series Rings under his belt - At 29. I expect numerous teams to offer him right out of the gate. It will be interesting to see if he will stay with the Anaheim Pepperchuckers or if he is willing to move to another city. Rumor has it he is high on the Wichita Black Lightning's wish list as well as Kansas City Black and Blue Brachiosaurus' and Syracuse Tyrants if they are unable to bring back both of their Cy Younger's.

And don't count out a return to the Salem Witch Doctors, where he has already won two rings.



Pat Politte needs no introduction either, as no 7 time All-Star should. Pat finally won his first World Series ring last year with the Syracuse Tyrants. Now he has a big decision on his hands. He has already stated he will be testing the market but it is unsure where he might land. Polite is on many teams wish list, including the Kansas City Black and Blue Brachiosaurus, Wichita Black Lightning, Pittsburgh Pranksters, among other clubs. Polite did bring a title to Syracuse before his contract ended. Insiders believe he is leaning towards staying in Syracuse but wants to 'experience being a Free Agent'.



The most decorated pitcher in Ripken Jr, Oscar Baumann, finally has his ring.. The 8 time All-Star and 4 time Cy Young winner won the Ring last year with the Syracuse Tyrants. Rumors within the league have said that he is the top priority of the Wichita Black Lightning this winter. The club has tried to trade for him numerous times, to no avail. Many other teams should in in on Baumann as well.



Red Parker is the oldest among this years Top Tier of pitchers, at age 36 Parker has 114 wins to go along with a 3.93 era and an All-Star appearance in Season 6. Parker will likely not command a max deal but will still be rewarded nicely.



Len Knott is not an Ace but is the top among the next tier of pitchers. Len has played his entire Major League career for the Iowa City I Wanna Score More. Knott does not have an amazing stat line but has proven he can be a reliable middle of the rotation starter.



The leagues Top Player and 7 time All-Star, Philip Cashman is the prize to be had this Free Agency Period. Cashman has been the leader for the Kansas City Black and Blue Brachiosaurus for the past 4 seasons, leading them to the #1 seed in the Playoffs last year. Rumors have swirled that Cashmen is top priority for the Salem Witch Doctors this post season and it would seem like a good fit for Cashman if he were to leave Kansas City.



Most years Larry Carver would sit atop the Free Agency Wish-Lists of hopefully clubs, this year though he may be the forgotten. With so many Cy Young caliber pitchers and Star Phillip Cashman all testing Free Agency, there has been little buzz around Carver apart from a feeling that he is many clubs "I-lost-out-on-Cashman" backup.



Achilles Cohen, the leagues all time Home Run leader is recieving even less attention from the top tier clubs. In fact, according to many sources within the league many clubs haven't even considered him. Cohen will likely get a solid deal, and with how much money is on the table it might be near max.



 In a surprising move that many journalists (including this one, but more on that later) have questioned, the Kansas City Black and Blue Brachiosaurus decided to cut last seasons MVP, Ted Wilson, loose and not renew their end of the mutual option. Wilson's market value might be higher if he was not isolated to LF/1B, where many of the top clubs are locked and ready to go. It has been rumored that Kansas City is hoping to re-sign their star for less then they owed him but with the money on the market it would be shocking not to see Wilson get a near max deal.



Roland Rivers played last season for three clubs, Salem Witch Doctors, Pittsburgh Pranksters and the Boston Puritans. He likely will not see any max money come his way but would be a nice consultation prize for whoever misses out on any of the big names.